the business case of AOL-Time Warner

After the sensational acquisition of a blue chip representative of the old economy, Time Warner, by AOL, a representative of the new economy, nothing seems to be Holy anymore. Nobody can deny that the world in the last years has changed drastically. We seem to be in the grip of a new power concentration in which future market strengths online may count more than shareholders' value in the short term. Not only do entrepreneurs promote this thinking, but much of the well-known "solid" financial world does as well. Are we definitely facing a new value model or are we working on a new concept for the emperor without clothes? That is a question we will try to answer in this article, along with another - Is a crisis already close-at-hand or will we maintain economic growth in the next few years?

the struggle: new entrants versus old laggards?

Wal-Mart is partnering with AOL in a co-branded ISP (Internet service provider). Yahoo and Kmart, with backing from famous venture capitalists, Softbank and Seagate, are doing the same. They offer free net service under the brand name BlueLight.com. Best Buy and Microsoft/MSN via Internet access are demonstrated and sold in stores. Best Buy is advertising on MSN service. Circuit City and AOL made a similar deal to that of MSN and Best Buy, as did MSN with Radio Shack. Is this a serious threat for retail giants like Sears, Ahold, Carrefour and Metro?

WebMD/Healthion conquered the medical information community in less then one year in the USA with the help of giants like Thomson Publishing, Dupont, ETrade, Microsoft and News Corp. Law.com and LRN, the legal knowledge company, are now attacking -again with the help of Softbank- the tax and legal community of US lawyers in a manner comparable to WebMD's. Vertical.net and Bizprolink are successful professional niche portals. Companies like Reed Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer, and Thomson could be exposed to the impossible situation of being subcontracted to customers whom they thought were theirs. Must they accept these new entrants as market leaders and watch as they attempt to destroy their traditional publishing businesses?

ETrade and Charles Schwab forced respected houses like Merrill Lynch to drastically…